What if Bernie Sanders is the nominee?
Addressing what could lie ahead if there is a Bernie Sanders nomination
With the Super Tuesday elections representing about 33% of the delegates for the nomination less than a week away, the decision has never been more imminent or critical. Let me tell you how I feel about Election 2020. I am not weighing the candidate’s policy proposals against each other. I am a standard Liberal and every candidate touches on enough of what I believe in to be able to support them. What I am watching for, is who has the most baggage that can be exploited by the GOP in a way that would be damaging enough to lose the voters in the Swing States. Due to the Electoral College, it is just a small number of states that actually push the electoral college votes over the halfway mark to elect the President.
Which leads me to the subject of Bernie Sanders. He is leading many polls (and has been anointed the frontrunner of the moment) as well as delegates. There are two possible ways his nomination as the Democratic candidate might go. Bernie Sanders might be the one to save us. Or he might be the one to hand the election to Donald Trump with a bow on it. Let’s examine those.
Bernie Will Lose to Donald Trump
There are some who legitimately argue against the policies of Sanders, that he doesn’t address how they will be paid, that they are disruptive etc. etc. I am not really going to it from that standpoint, but from the view of how the GOP Machine will ensure the very narrow majority needed in key swing states will be won by them, and not the self-proclaimed Democratic socialist.
Here is what they will do. He has already been branded as “Crazy Bernie” by Trump. Their plan to bring him down will be by emphasizing his “Socialist” title. The electorate, particularly in the swing states that are not as clued in on the nuances between “Democratic Socialism” like in wonderful European countries such as Denmark and the Marxist idea of socialism. There will be commercials that tackle how “un-American” it is, then tag that on to replaying Bernie’s recent praise of Communist dictator Fidel Castro. That’s it.
Day and night, commercials will run that will highlight Bernie’s plans as dangerous for the American economy(the one thing most Americans feel Trump is doing well on). Democrats, for the most part, are smarter than this. But the General Election is not just won by the votes of Democrats, but also Independents. The problem is, polls show that 37% of Independents would NOT vote for a candidate that is any kind of socialist. There will also be endless ads showing excerpts of Bernie saying “Are people going to pay more in taxes? Yes” from his 2016 Fox News Town Hall or on Stephen Colbert. The independents and even some swing state Dems will be scared with the usual bogeymen of Taxes and socialism. This is what fuels the argument that Bernie Sanders is the worst candidate to run against Trump as they have plenty of ways to tear him apart in Florida and the Heartland. He’s already losing Florida dems with the Castro stuff.
Bernie Will deliver a stunning win over Donald Trump
There is a strong belief among the people who support the Senator from Vermont. That belief is that they have indeed, created a movement. That they are going to get more turnout from voters who believe his message of economic hope. Enough people, to cancel out those who might vote against him. This movement will drive higher turnout, ending up in a defeat of Trump.
There is also a belief that Bernie is on to something. He is playing the outsider, the man of the people. He is the progressive guy nobody thought could win — very similar to the way Donald Trump was viewed in 2016 in his Party. The media said he could not do it, and in fact, his numbers were similar to Bernie’s until he started winning big. Just maybe the people are ready for this radical change again.
Bernie could ignite one of the sleeping giants, the Latino community. Their excited and motivated engagement could put Texas and Arizona in play. Bernie’s enthusiastic movement could catch on, people who long for something real can become a part of this, all amounting to the critical votes in the states (except Florida) needed to win the Electoral College vote.
What Will Really Happen?
I am not a psychic and I don’t pretend to be Nate Silver. Even the head to head matchup polls are meaningless because none of that takes into account of what it would mean if Bernie Sanders was the actual nominee. Dems will rally around him. Probably more so than his followers rallied behind Clinton in 2016. The attack will be strong, hard, and relentless from the GOP. The support of his followers will be strong and passionate. No poll taken right now can tell us how any of this will pan out in the General Election.
So, you can take a leap of faith for the movement spreading and prevailing over the GOP onslaught, especially in the very impressionable swing states. Or you could vote for someone that the Russians are not trying to get elected. If you have not done early voting and are not in NV, NH, or IA, the decision is still yours to make. Vote wisely.
